San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Devers homered to right center (400 feet).5–7
- 6T. Hernández singled to left, Betts scored.4–7
- 6Ohtani homered to left center (403 feet).4–6
- 5Edman homered to left (376 feet).4–5
- 4Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.4–4
- 4Conforto homered to left center (395 feet).4–3
- 1Muncy homered to right center (385 feet), Freeman scored.4–2
- 1Gilbert walked, Eldridge scored, Schmitt to second, Lee to third.4–0
- 1Eldridge doubled to left, Chapman scored, Ramos scored and Adames scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML SF +200 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -212
- SF +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +3 | SF: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +92 Elo | LAD 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–41 | Road vs home | 51–284th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 20th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–86 | 65–89 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–59 | 51–80 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 75–79 | 78–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–24 LAD in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 37.