St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong homered to right (413 feet), Suzuki scored.3–7
- 7Busch tripled to center, Shaw scored.3–5
- 7Walker homered to center (419 feet), Crooks scored.3–4
- 6Suzuki homered to left center (370 feet).1–4
- 5Busch homered to left center (392 feet), Shaw scored.1–3
- 4Arenado homered to left center (368 feet).1–1
- 1Busch homered to right center (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML STL +150 / CHC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +11 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +82 Elo | CHC 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 48–297th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 25th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–84 | 75–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–48 | 48–59 |
| Underdog | 52–36 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders | 84–76 | 80–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 17–20 CHC in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.