New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Soto homered to center (397 feet).3–10
- 6Busch homered to right center (376 feet), Shaw scored.2–10
- 5Crow-Armstrong scored on Holmes wild pitch.2–8
- 5Crow-Armstrong scored on Holmes wild pitch.2–8
- 5Ballesteros scored on error, Crow-Armstrong safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Vientos, Crow-Armstrong safe at second on error.2–7
- 5Alvarez homered to left (413 feet), Vientos scored.2–6
- 4Shaw homered to center (396 feet).0–6
- 3Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Ballesteros scored, Suzuki to third.0–5
- 3Suzuki doubled to left, Happ scored, Ballesteros to third.0–4
- 3Ballesteros singled to left, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.0–3
- 3Happ doubled to right, Shaw scored and Busch scored, Hoerner to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML NYM -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | NYM: Jonah Tong: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 46–287th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–86 | 73–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–69 | 46–59 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–82 | 77–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–7 CHC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.