Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Reese McGuireBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stephenson homered to right (360 feet), Marte scored.3–6
- 8McGuire doubled to right, Castro scored.3–4
- 7Friedl homered to right (373 feet).2–4
- 5Steer homered to left center (414 feet).2–3
- 5McGuire homered to right (346 feet).2–2
- 3Benson singled to center, Friedl scored, Steer to third.1–2
- 3Steer grounded into fielder's choice to third, McLain scored, Friedl to second.1–1
- 3Busch homered to right center (432 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CHC -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 46.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −14 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +26 Elo | CHC 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3042–37 | Road vs home | 42–3314th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 150418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–82 | 80–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 46–58 | 24–46 |
| Underdog | 26–24 | 55–28 |
| Overs–unders | 75–79 | 62–92 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 16–21 CIN in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.