Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Matt ShawBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6De La Cruz homered to left center (366 feet).4–7
- 6Steer homered to left center (389 feet), Hays scored.4–6
- 5Friedl singled to left, Hayes scored.4–4
- 4Steer homered to left center (402 feet).4–3
- 4Shaw homered to left (391 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.4–2
- 3McLain homered to left center (422 feet).2–2
- 3Happ doubled to left, Hoerner scored.2–1
- 2Swanson homered to center (400 feet).1–1
- 1Andujar homered to left (403 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +23 Elo | CHC 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3042–36 | Road vs home | 41–3314th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–81 | 79–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 46–58 | 23–46 |
| Underdog | 26–23 | 55–28 |
| Overs–unders | 74–79 | 61–92 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 16–20 CIN in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 36.