Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Ballesteros scored, Kelly to third.4–1
- 2Happ hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.3–1
- 1Cruz tripled to right, Horwitz scored.2–1
- 1Crow-Armstrong singled to left, Happ scored, Ballesteros to second.2–0
- 1Busch homered to right (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML CHC +110 / PIT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +17 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +38 Elo | CHC 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3040–35 | Road vs home | 42–3414th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 147224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–81 | 80–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 45–58 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 24–23 | 63–42 |
| Overs–unders | 73–77 | 62–89 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 25–12 PIT in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.