Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Robert Hassell IIIBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Triolo homered to left center (409 feet).5–1
- 8Yorke singled to right, McCutchen scored and Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.4–1
- 8McCutchen singled to right, Peguero scored and Pham scored, Reynolds to third.2–1
- 6Hassell III singled to left, Crews scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML PIT -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 45.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +23 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 1.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +33 Elo | WSH 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–51 | Road vs home | 30–4229th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–69 | 72–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 4–20 |
| Underdog | 62–41 | 68–55 |
| Overs–unders | 62–86 | 79–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 12–7 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.