Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Joey WiemerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edwards reached on infield single to first, Mesa Jr. scored, Sanoja to third.7–5
- 9Mesa Jr. doubled to left, Hernández scored and Hicks scored.7–4
- 8Ramírez singled to right, Wiemer scored, Edwards to second, Acosta to third.7–2
- 6Bell hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored.7–1
- 5Lile homered to right (410 feet).6–1
- 4Wood grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, House scored, Abrams out at second, Crews to third.5–1
- 4Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Alfaro scored.4–1
- 2Wiemer homered to left (389 feet).3–1
- 1Bell homered to right center (409 feet), Abrams scored and Wood scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML WSH +105 / MIA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 4.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −4 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +47 Elo | MIA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 32–4026th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 28th of 301446 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–72 | 78–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 6–23 |
| Underdog | 67–53 | 72–43 |
| Overs–unders | 76–67 | 71–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 18–18 MIA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 36.