Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Josh BellBatting4-6, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee homered to right center (402 feet).15–7
- 9Bell singled to right, Hassell III scored, Wood to third.15–6
- 9Wood singled to right, Crews scored, Hassell III to third.14–6
- 8Mesa Jr. homered to right (394 feet), Hernández scored and Acosta scored.13–6
- 8Acosta singled to left, Hicks scored, Hernández to second.13–3
- 7Bell homered to right (413 feet), Abrams scored.13–2
- 6DeJong reached on infield single to pitcher, Lile scored, García Jr. to second.11–2
- 6Bell homered to left center (431 feet), Wood scored.10–2
- 5Edwards singled to center, Mesa Jr. scored.8–2
- 5Crews homered to left (409 feet), García Jr. scored and Adams scored.8–1
- 5DeJong hit sacrifice fly to center, Lile scored, García Jr. to third.5–1
- 5Adams singled to center, Bell scored, García Jr. to second, Lile to third.4–1
- 5Bell singled to right, Abrams scored.3–1
- 4Crews doubled to center, García Jr. scored, Adams to third.2–1
- 2Hernández singled to right, Lopez scored, Hicks to third.1–1
- 2García Jr. homered to right (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML WSH +105 / MIA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +33 Elo | MIA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 32–3926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 146625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–72 | 78–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 6–22 |
| Underdog | 66–53 | 72–43 |
| Overs–unders | 75–67 | 70–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 17–18 MIA in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 35.