Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Eric WagamanBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wiemer hit sacrifice fly to left, Wagaman scored.0–5
- 8Wagaman doubled to center, Marsee scored and Mesa Jr. scored, Wagaman safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.0–4
- 1Wagaman singled to center, Marsee scored.0–2
- 1Hernández hit sacrifice fly to left, Edwards scored, Marsee to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML WSH +110 / MIA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +28 Elo | MIA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–43 | Road vs home | 33–4126th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 28th of 301446 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–73 | 79–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 7–24 |
| Underdog | 68–54 | 72–43 |
| Overs–unders | 78–67 | 73–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 19–19 MIA in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 38.