Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Edwards homered to right (346 feet), Wiemer scored and Mesa Jr. scored.3–8
- 7Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored, Marsee to second.3–5
- 6Wagaman singled to right, Lopez scored, Ramírez to third.3–4
- 6Ramírez singled to left, Marsee scored, Lopez to second.3–3
- 6Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Edwards scored, Marsee to second.3–2
- 6Marsee singled to right, Acosta scored, Edwards to second, Edwards safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Crews.3–1
- 6García Jr. singled to right, Lile scored.3–0
- 6Lile tripled to right, Bell scored.2–0
- 3Hassell III singled to center, House scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML WSH +130 / MIA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −14 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +27 Elo | MIA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–42 | Road vs home | 32–4126th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Elo rating | 146026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–72 | 78–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 68–53 | 72–43 |
| Overs–unders | 77–67 | 72–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 19–18 MIA in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 37.