Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brad LordPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bart singled to left, Yorke scored, Bart to second, Canario thrown out at home.5–6
- 9Yorke singled to right, N. Gonzales scored.4–6
- 7Bell singled to right, Hassell III scored and Wood scored, Bell safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Cruz.3–6
- 7Crews homered to center (407 feet), Young scored.3–4
- 6Wood scored, Lile to second, Bell to third on wild pitch by Sisk.3–2
- 6Wood scored on Sisk wild pitch, Lile to second on wild pitch by Sisk, Bell to third on wild pitch by Sisk.3–2
- 6House homered to center (402 feet).3–1
- 5Horwitz homered to right (375 feet), Triolo scored.3–0
- 3Reynolds singled to left, Triolo scored, Horwitz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML PIT -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH 0 Elo | WSH 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–50 | Road vs home | 29–4229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 24th of 301473 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–69 | 72–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 4–19 |
| Underdog | 61–41 | 68–55 |
| Overs–unders | 61–86 | 78–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 12–6 WSH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.