Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Paul DeJongBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lile doubled to center, Wood scored on fielding error by center fielder Cruz, Lile to third.3–4
- 2Young singled to center, DeJong scored, Young to second.3–3
- 2Nuñez hit sacrifice fly to left, Chaparro scored.3–2
- 2DeJong doubled to left, Lile scored, Chaparro to third.3–1
- 1N. Gonzales scored on Cavalli wild pitch.3–0
- 1N. Gonzales scored on Cavalli wild pitch.3–0
- 1N. Gonzales tripled to right, Triolo scored and Horwitz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +6 Elo | PIT 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3023–51 | Road vs home | 30–4329th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Elo rating | 144228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–69 | 72–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 4–21 |
| Underdog | 63–41 | 68–55 |
| Overs–unders | 62–87 | 79–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–7 WSH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.