Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-4
- Braxton AshcraftPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (414 feet).4–0
- 4Swanson doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.3–0
- 3Hoerner scored on Ashcraft wild pitch, Happ to second.2–0
- 3Hoerner scored on Ashcraft wild pitch, Happ to second on wild pitch by Ashcraft.2–0
- 3Busch homered to center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +22 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +26 Elo | CHC 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3039–35 | Road vs home | 42–3314th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 147424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–81 | 80–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–58 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 24–23 | 63–41 |
| Overs–unders | 73–76 | 62–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 24–12 PIT in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 36.