Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-3
- Colin ReaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-3
- Hunter GreenePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Benson doubled to center, Hays scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML CHC +125 / CIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 48.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -135
- CHC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −2 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +8 Elo | CHC 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3042–35 | Road vs home | 40–3314th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 150019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–81 | 79–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 46–58 | 23–45 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 55–28 |
| Overs–unders | 74–78 | 61–91 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 16–19 CIN in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.