Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner singled to left, Hoerner scored, Happ to second.8–4
- 6Turner singled to right, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.7–4
- 6Happ singled to center, Shaw scored, Hoerner to second.6–4
- 6Busch hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored.5–4
- 2McCutchen walked, Devanney scored, N. Gonzales to second, Triolo to third.4–4
- 1Bart homered to center (419 feet), Pham scored and McCutchen scored.4–3
- 1Ballesteros homered to right (410 feet).4–0
- 1Happ homered to right (403 feet), Hoerner scored.3–0
- 1Busch scored on a balk, Hoerner to second on a balk.1–0
- 1Busch scored on a balk, Hoerner to second on a balk.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -145 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +56 Elo | CHC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3041–35 | Road vs home | 42–3516th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 147024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–81 | 80–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 45–58 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 63–42 |
| Overs–unders | 73–78 | 62–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 26–12 PIT in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 38.