Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo singled to right, Alonso scored and J. Soto scored, Acuña to third.6–12
- 8Acuña walked, Lindor scored, Alonso to second, J. Soto to third.6–10
- 7Marte grounded out to second, Acuña scored.6–9
- 5Abrams homered to right center (426 feet), Young scored.6–8
- 4J. Soto homered to center (419 feet), Baty scored and Lindor scored.4–8
- 4Lindor singled to left, Alvarez scored on error, Baty to second, Lindor to second, Baty safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Wood.4–5
- 4Alvarez doubled to left, Marte scored and Nimmo scored.4–4
- 3Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored, J. Soto to second.4–2
- 3Lile tripled to center, Bell scored.4–1
- 3Bell doubled to center, Abrams scored.3–1
- 3Abrams doubled to right, Alfaro scored.2–1
- 3Alfaro reached on infield single to pitcher, DeJong scored on throwing error by pitcher Sproat.1–1
- 1Alonso singled to right, Lindor scored on fielding error by right fielder Crews.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 67%
- ML WSH +195 / NYM -235
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.8%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -207
- WSH +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 5.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +10 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +91 Elo | NYM 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–44 | Road vs home | 47–309th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 29th of 301433 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–80 | 69–84 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–21 | 41–67 |
| Underdog | 69–59 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 82–71 | 73–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 12–24 NYM in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 36.