Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.5–0
- 10Olson tripled to right, Baldwin scored, Kim scored and Profar scored.4–0
- 10Baldwin doubled to right, Harris II scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -185 / WSH +155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 2.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +29 | +3 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +68 Elo | ATL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.324th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3031–44 | Road vs home | 31–4529th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 143828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–79 | 73–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–57 | 4–21 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 69–57 |
| Overs–unders | 73–78 | 81–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 18–16 WSH in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.