Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kim singled to center, Olson scored, Albies to second.6–2
- 4Olson homered to right (424 feet).6–1
- 3Walker homered to center (431 feet), Sánchez scored.6–0
- 3Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Correa scored, Altuve out at second.4–0
- 2Peña doubled to left, Diaz scored and Meyers scored.3–0
- 2Diaz singled to center, Walker scored, Meyers to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / ATL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–36 | Road vs home | 35–3825th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–75 | 69–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–58 | 36–57 |
| Underdog | 41–17 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders | 69–79 | 70–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–3 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.