Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Zach ColeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Braves- Eli WhiteBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8White homered to left center (416 feet), Profar scored.11–3
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left (375 feet).11–1
- 6Altuve homered to left (381 feet).11–0
- 5Dubón singled to left, Meyers scored and Cole scored.10–0
- 5Cole singled to right, Walker scored on error, Cole safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr., Meyers safe at third on error.8–0
- 5Meyers singled to left, Caratini scored, Walker to second.7–0
- 5Walker singled to center, Correa scored and Sánchez scored, Caratini to third.6–0
- 4Cole singled to center, Walker scored, Meyers to second.4–0
- 4Meyers singled to right, Altuve scored, Walker to third.3–0
- 3Cole homered to right center (423 feet), Meyers scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML HOU +115 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +7 | HOU: Jayden Murray (no track record yet) · ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +19 Elo | ATL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 6th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 35–3725th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–75 | 69–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–58 | 36–56 |
| Underdog | 40–17 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders | 68–79 | 69–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.