Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Braves- Sandy LeonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7León homered to right (369 feet), White scored.3–8
- 6Albies doubled to left, Profar scored.3–6
- 6Smith homered to left center (446 feet).3–5
- 5Kim singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second.2–5
- 5Albies singled to center, Olson scored and Profar scored, Acuña Jr. to third.2–4
- 4Diaz singled to left, Meyers scored.2–2
- 2León grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kim scored on error, Ozuna safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Dubón.1–2
- 1Olson homered to right (398 feet).1–1
- 1Walker singled to right, Alvarez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -135 / ATL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −27 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 1.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 35–3925th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–75 | 69–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–58 | 36–57 |
| Underdog | 41–17 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 69–80 | 70–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.