Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alfaro singled to right, Lile scored.6–3
- 8Bruján singled to left, Kim scored, Harris II to second.6–2
- 4Olson homered to center (443 feet).5–2
- 4Profar homered to right (372 feet), Bruján scored.4–2
- 4Bruján doubled to left, Harris II scored.2–2
- 4White grounded out to third, Kim scored, Harris II to second.1–2
- 2Abrams hit sacrifice fly to right, House scored.0–2
- 2Young singled to right, Crews scored, House to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML ATL -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −14 | ATL: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–44 | Road vs home | 31–4429th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 144028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–79 | 73–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–57 | 4–21 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 69–56 |
| Overs–unders | 72–78 | 80–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 17–16 WSH in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 33.