Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to right (378 feet), Albies scored.11–3
- 9Acuña Jr. homered to left (423 feet).9–3
- 8Wood grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Hassell III scored, Abrams out at second.8–3
- 8Abrams singled to center, Adams scored, Hassell III to third.8–2
- 7Baldwin singled to left, Profar scored, Kim to second, Olson to third.8–1
- 7Olson doubled to left, Alvarez Jr. scored, Profar to third.7–1
- 6Baldwin singled to right, Kim scored.6–1
- 5Olson homered to right (400 feet), Ozuna scored and Harris II scored.5–1
- 4Kim grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies out at second.2–1
- 4Albies singled to right, Olson scored, Acuña Jr. to third.1–1
- 2Lile homered to right (382 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -165 / WSH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −17 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +34 Elo | ATL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–44 | Road vs home | 31–4329th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–79 | 73–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–57 | 4–21 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 69–55 |
| Overs–unders | 71–78 | 79–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–16 WSH in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 32.