Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9House singled to right, Crews scored, Hassell III to second.9–4
- 9Kim singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored and Baldwin scored.9–3
- 9Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored, Baldwin to second, Acuña Jr. to third.7–3
- 8Ozuna doubled to right, Kim scored.6–3
- 7Olson homered to right center (422 feet).5–3
- 6Alvarez Jr. singled to left, Kim scored, Ozuna thrown out at third.4–3
- 6Ozuna singled to right, Albies scored and Baldwin scored, Kim to second.3–3
- 6Baldwin doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–3
- 5Wood doubled to right, Hassell III scored.0–3
- 5Hassell III doubled to right, Crews scored.0–2
- 5Crews singled to right, García Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +38 Elo | ATL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 31–4629th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–79 | 73–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–57 | 4–21 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 69–58 |
| Overs–unders | 73–79 | 81–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 19–16 WSH in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.