Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nasim NunezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lindor homered to right (388 feet).3–2
- 3Mullins singled to left, Torrens scored.3–1
- 2Nuñez homered to left center (374 feet), Alfaro scored.3–0
- 2Alfaro doubled to left, Lile scored on throwing error by shortstop Lindor.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 72%
- ML WSH +240 / NYM -300
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.9%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- NYM -255
- WSH +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 5.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −24 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +92 Elo | NYM 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 68.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–45 | Road vs home | 48–319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 29th of 301434 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–81 | 70–85 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–21 | 42–68 |
| Underdog | 70–60 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 83–72 | 74–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 13–25 NYM in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 38.