Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Lile inside-the-park home run to center (401 feet), Chaparro scored.5–3
- 9J. Soto singled to center, Siri scored, Lindor to second.3–3
- 8Vientos doubled to left, Marte scored and Nimmo scored.3–2
- 2Adams scored on McLean wild pitch, House to second on wild pitch by McLean.3–0
- 2Adams scored on McLean wild pitch, House to second on wild pitch by McLean.3–0
- 2Adams singled to right, Crews scored on fielding error by right fielder J. Soto, Adams to third.2–0
- 1Lile grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wood scored, Bell out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML WSH +230 / NYM -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 66.2%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -244
- WSH +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +19 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +116 Elo | NYM 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3031–45 | Road vs home | 48–309th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 29th of 301431 | Elo rating | 151810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–81 | 70–84 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–21 | 42–67 |
| Underdog | 69–60 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 83–71 | 74–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 12–25 NYM in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 37.