New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Huascar BrazobanPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to center (403 feet), Acuña scored.9–7
- 6Suzuki singled to center, Hoerner scored, Happ to second.7–7
- 6Lindor singled to center, McNeil scored, Alvarez to second.7–6
- 5Nimmo homered to right (388 feet), J. Soto scored and Alonso scored.6–6
- 5Alonso singled to right, Alvarez scored, J. Soto to third.3–6
- 5Lindor grounded out to second, Marte scored, Alvarez to third.2–6
- 4Hoerner scored on error, Happ safe at first on throwing error by second baseman McNeil.1–6
- 2Happ doubled to left, Hoerner scored and Shaw scored.1–5
- 2Hoerner singled to left, Turner scored, Shaw to third.1–3
- 1Santana doubled to right, Hoerner scored and Kelly scored.1–2
- 1Lindor homered to center (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML NYM -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +53 Elo | CHC 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–44 | Road vs home | 46–277th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–86 | 73–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–69 | 46–58 |
| Underdog | 28–17 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders | 74–82 | 76–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–7 CHC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.