New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 11 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suzuki homered to left center (396 feet), Happ scored and Ballesteros scored.8–5
- 6Taylor doubled to center, Baty scored and Nimmo scored.8–2
- 5Swanson homered to right center (402 feet).6–2
- 4Suzuki homered to left center (434 feet).6–1
- 4Baty homered to left (371 feet), Nimmo scored and Torrens scored.6–0
- 3Lindor homered to left (407 feet).3–0
- 1Nimmo singled to right, Alonso scored.2–0
- 1Vientos fouled out to shortstop, Lindor scored, Alonso to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / CHC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −2 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +21 Elo | CHC 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–45 | Road vs home | 47–287th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–87 | 74–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–69 | 47–59 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders | 76–82 | 78–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–8 CHC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.