St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alcántara singled to right, Ballesteros scored.1–12
- 7Suzuki homered to left center (392 feet), Hoerner scored, Happ scored and Tucker scored.1–11
- 7Happ reached on infield single to shortstop, Busch scored, Hoerner to second.1–7
- 7Busch doubled to right, Shaw scored.1–6
- 7Shaw tripled to left, Swanson scored.1–5
- 7Walker singled to left, Gorman scored, Saggese to second.1–4
- 5Busch homered to center (414 feet).0–4
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (396 feet), Tucker scored.0–3
- 1Hoerner homered to center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML STL +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −12 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +52 Elo | CHC 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–44 | Road vs home | 47–297th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–83 | 74–85 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–48 | 47–59 |
| Underdog | 52–35 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders | 83–76 | 79–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 17–19 CHC in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 36.