St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JT BrubakerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Knizner tripled to right, Koss scored.3–4
- 8Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.3–3
- 4Knizner hit sacrifice fly to right, Koss scored.2–3
- 3Devers homered to right (376 feet).2–2
- 3Herrera singled to left, Donovan scored.2–1
- 3Donovan doubled to right, Scott II scored.1–1
- 2Lee doubled to center, Schmitt scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / SF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- STL: Elo 44.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: JT Brubaker (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +37 Elo | SF 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–43 | Road vs home | 38–3921st of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 149820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–82 | 69–89 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–47 | 27–61 |
| Underdog | 52–35 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders | 83–75 | 78–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–8 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.