Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gray singled to center, Bell scored, Outman to second, Caratini to third.6–8
- 7Mayo singled to left, Rutschman scored, O'Neill to second, Basallo to third.5–8
- 7Rutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored, Alonso to third.5–7
- 7Alonso singled to right, Ward scored, Henderson to third.5–6
- 7Lewis homered to left (377 feet).5–5
- 6Beavers doubled to right, Mayo scored and O'Neill scored.4–5
- 4O'Neill homered to left (391 feet), Alonso scored and Basallo scored.4–3
- 2Gray doubled to center, Bell scored, Larnach scored and Caratini scored, Gray out stretching at third.4–0
- 2Larnach reached on infield single to second, Wallner scored, Caratini to second, Bell to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML MIN +135 / BAL -163
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3032–49 | Road vs home | 39–4222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–84 | 81–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 56–40 |
| Overs–unders | 77–85 | 69–93 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–11 BAL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.