Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stanton grounded out to third, Goldschmidt scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.4–8
- 6Wells singled to right, Grisham scored, Volpe to third.4–7
- 6O'Neill homered to right center (394 feet).4–6
- 3Stanton homered to center (451 feet), Bellinger scored.3–6
- 3Judge homered to center (423 feet), Caballero scored.3–4
- 3Westburg homered to left (368 feet), Mayo scored and Holliday scored.3–2
- 1Stanton homered to right center (397 feet), Bellinger scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML BAL +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −19 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 47–318th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 21st of 301490 | Elo rating | 15504th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–79 | 75–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 63–74 |
| Underdog | 55–38 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 68–91 | 77–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–17 NYY in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 36.