Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Michael A. TaylorBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wells doubled to center, Domínguez scored.3–5
- 5Stanton doubled to left, Judge scored, Rice scored and Bellinger scored.3–4
- 4M. Taylor homered to right center (378 feet), Vargas scored.3–1
- 2Julks hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.1–1
- 1Rice grounded out to pitcher, Grisham scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 73%
- ML CHW +255 / NYY -320
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 68.3%, market 73.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -270
- CHW +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +134 Elo | NYY 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 70.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 73.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–52 | Road vs home | 46–319th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 29th of 301431 | Elo rating | 15494th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 91–67 | 75–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 63–73 |
| Underdog | 89–60 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 77–81 | 77–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–12 NYY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.