Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-4
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caballero singled to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.2–3
- 9Bellinger walked, Volpe scored on Eisert wild pitch, Judge to second.2–2
- 6Montgomery homered to right center (428 feet), Teel scored.2–1
- 2Wells doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, Volpe to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 67%
- ML CHW +195 / NYY -235
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 69.5%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +143 Elo | NYY 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–50 | Road vs home | 44–3111th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 28th of 301433 | Elo rating | 15474th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–66 | 74–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 62–72 |
| Underdog | 88–59 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 76–80 | 76–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–10 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.