Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4
- Jonathan CannonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge homered to right center (395 feet).1–8
- 8Grisham homered to center (402 feet), McMahon scored.1–7
- 3Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored.1–5
- 3Goldschmidt singled to right, Rice scored.1–4
- 2Judge homered to center (392 feet), Volpe scored and Grisham scored.1–3
- 2Sosa hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 76%
- ML CHW +295 / NYY -375
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 70.6%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -312
- CHW +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 5.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +13 | CHW: Fraser Ellard: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +153 Elo | NYY 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 73.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–51 | Road vs home | 45–3110th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 29th of 301433 | Elo rating | 15484th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 91–66 | 74–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 62–73 |
| Underdog | 89–59 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 76–81 | 76–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–11 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.