Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Max KeplerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to center, Bader scored.1–2
- 8Kepler homered to right center (399 feet).1–1
- 6Jeffers doubled to left, Martin scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML MIN +205 / PHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -218
- MIN +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +98 Elo | PHI 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3032–48 | Road vs home | 54–261st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 26th of 301463 | Elo rating | 15524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–84 | 84–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 60–66 |
| Underdog | 45–33 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 77–84 | 76–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.