Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Troy JohnstonBatting2-4
- Janson JunkPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 1Bohm grounded out to third, Bader scored, Harper to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML MIA +135 / PHI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +105 Elo | PHI 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 52–251st of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–70 | 83–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 59–64 |
| Underdog | 78–45 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 81–77 | 76–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 17–23 PHI in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 40.