Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Troy JohnstonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Higashioka homered to left center (414 feet).4–3
- 6Norby homered to left (384 feet).4–2
- 6Johnston homered to right (361 feet).3–2
- 4Wagaman hit sacrifice fly to left, Norby scored.2–2
- 3Tellez singled to left, Pederson scored on error, Osuna to second, Osuna safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Hernández.1–2
- 3Osuna singled to center, Duran scored, Pederson to third.1–1
- 2Johnston singled to center, Lopez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML MIA +120 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | MIA: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +63 Elo | TEX 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 47–298th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 151810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–69 | 79–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 35–45 |
| Underdog | 75–44 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 79–75 | 70–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–5 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.