Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Astros- Zach ColeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cole singled to right, Peña scored, Cole to second.3–6
- 7Peña doubled to center, Sánchez scored.3–5
- 5Cole homered to right (390 feet), Peña scored.3–4
- 5Smith singled to right, Moore scored.3–2
- 5Jung homered to left (352 feet), Osuna scored.2–2
- 1Correa reached on infield single to pitcher, Peña scored and Alvarez scored on throwing error by pitcher Leiter, Correa to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML TEX +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU 0 Elo | HOU 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–43 | Road vs home | 43–3213th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301525 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–71 | 74–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–42 | 33–59 |
| Underdog | 44–29 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 67–83 | 70–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–23 HOU in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 43.