Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- McCade BrownPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak homered to right (429 feet).8–4
- 9Wiemer singled to right, Pauley scored.8–3
- 8Ramírez homered to left center (422 feet), Sanoja scored.7–3
- 7Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Pauley scored.5–3
- 6Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Hernández scored, Marsee to second, Sanoja to third.4–3
- 4Beck singled to left, Goodman scored.3–3
- 4Marsee reached on infield single to shortstop, Johnston scored, Sanoja to third.3–2
- 4Sanoja doubled to left, Hernández scored, Johnston to third.2–2
- 3Hicks singled to right, Marsee scored, Ramírez to third.1–2
- 2Fulford hit sacrifice fly to right, Crim scored.0–2
- 2Farmer singled to center, Tovar scored, Crim to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML MIA -155 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +17 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: McCade Brown: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +68 Elo | MIA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 12th of 3035–38 | Road vs home | 23–5330th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 24th of 301470 | Elo rating | 137330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–69 | 72–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 74–44 | 70–75 |
| Overs–unders | 76–75 | 69–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–10 COL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.