Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Troy JohnstonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Johnston homered to right center (413 feet), Hernández scored.4–6
- 11Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wiemer scored, Lopez out at second.4–4
- 11Pérez doubled to right, Greene scored, Torkelson to third.4–3
- 6Johnston homered to right center (434 feet).3–3
- 5Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, McKinstry scored.3–2
- 3Carpenter homered to right center (395 feet), Torres scored.2–2
- 2Sanoja doubled to left, Acosta scored.0–2
- 1Lopez singled to center, Ramírez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- DET: Elo 55.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −11 | DET: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +37 Elo | DET 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 35–4126th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 146925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–78 | 81–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 48–57 | 8–24 |
| Underdog | 22–21 | 73–43 |
| Overs–unders | 82–66 | 74–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–5 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.