Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Joey WiemerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carpenter scored on Alcantara wild pitch, Greene to third on wild pitch by Alcantara.2–8
- 7Carpenter scored on Alcantara wild pitch, Greene to third on wild pitch by Alcantara.2–8
- 6Wiemer homered to left (417 feet), Hernández scored and Wagaman scored.1–8
- 4Sanoja doubled to left, Acosta scored and Hernández scored.1–5
- 4Greene homered to center (401 feet).1–3
- 2Sanoja grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wagaman scored, Acosta out at second.0–3
- 2Hernández homered to right (354 feet).0–2
- 1Ramírez homered to left (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML DET -200 / MIA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- DET: Elo 58.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- MIA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 2.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | +3 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +59 Elo | DET 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 34–4126th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 11th of 301520 | Elo rating | 146525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–77 | 80–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 48–56 | 8–24 |
| Underdog | 22–21 | 72–43 |
| Overs–unders | 81–66 | 73–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.