Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak reached on infield single to first, Karros scored on throwing error by first baseman Wagaman, Freeman safe at third on error.6–5
- 9Fernández hit sacrifice fly to left, Doyle scored.6–4
- 8Moniak homered to right center (417 feet), Karros scored and Freeman scored.6–3
- 6Sanoja doubled to right, Myers scored.6–0
- 6Myers doubled to center, Hernández scored and Wagaman scored.5–0
- 3Marsee doubled to center, Ramírez scored and Sanoja scored.3–0
- 3Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Wiemer scored, Sanoja to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML MIA -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +67 Elo | MIA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 13th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 23–5230th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 137430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–68 | 71–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–24 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 74–44 | 69–75 |
| Overs–unders | 75–75 | 68–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–10 COL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.