Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-3
- AJ BlubaughPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8A. García singled to right, Jung scored, Osuna to third.5–6
- 8Jung doubled to left, Higashioka scored.4–6
- 8Heim homered to right (389 feet), Tellez scored.3–6
- 5Freeman homered to left center (373 feet).1–6
- 4Altuve singled to left, Sánchez scored, Peña to second.0–6
- 4Sánchez singled to right, Caratini scored and Diaz scored.0–5
- 4Diaz doubled to left, Meyers scored, Caratini to third.0–3
- 3Walker grounded out to third, Peña scored.0–2
- 1Altuve hit sacrifice fly to left, Peña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / HOU +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 3.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −15 | TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: AJ Blubaugh: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 44–3213th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301523 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–72 | 75–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–42 | 34–59 |
| Underdog | 44–30 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 68–83 | 71–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–24 HOU in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 44.