Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Peña homered to right (343 feet).2–5
- 3Altuve homered to left (372 feet), Correa scored.2–4
- 2Freeman singled to center, Jung scored.2–2
- 2Jung doubled to left, Osuna scored.1–2
- 1Diaz singled to left, Correa scored and Peña scored, Caratini to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -150 / HOU +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 3.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −17 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +2 Elo | TEX 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–45 | Road vs home | 45–3213th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301522 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–73 | 76–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–43 | 34–59 |
| Underdog | 44–30 | 42–17 |
| Overs–unders | 69–83 | 72–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–25 HOU in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 45.