Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Blaine CrimBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak homered to center (452 feet), Ritter scored.9–7
- 9Ritter doubled to right, Fernández scored.9–5
- 9Crim homered to left center (424 feet).9–4
- 9Hernández homered to left center (426 feet), Marsee scored.9–3
- 8Johnston singled to center, Wagaman scored.7–3
- 7Fernández homered to right center (415 feet).6–3
- 7Hicks singled to left, Marsee scored and Ramírez scored.6–2
- 3Lopez homered to left center (446 feet).4–2
- 3Hicks homered to right center (411 feet), Ramírez scored.3–2
- 2Freeman singled to center, Karros scored, Fernández to second.1–2
- 2Crim homered to left (406 feet).1–1
- 2Myers singled to center, Wagaman scored, Johnston to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 61%
- ML MIA -175 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 62.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +85 Elo | MIA 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 12th of 3036–38 | Road vs home | 23–5430th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 137130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–69 | 72–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 74–44 | 70–76 |
| Overs–unders | 77–75 | 70–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–10 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.