Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Burger hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.6–4
- 12Myers reached on infield single to shortstop, Navarreto scored.6–3
- 12Navarreto doubled to left, Marsee scored.5–3
- 12Marsee doubled to right, Ramírez scored.4–3
- 10Tellez homered to right center (429 feet), Burger scored.3–3
- 10Edwards singled to right, Lopez scored, Edwards to second, Wiemer to third.3–1
- 10Lopez doubled to center, Ramírez scored.2–1
- 7Sanoja homered to left (368 feet).1–1
- 2Jung reached on infield single to catcher, Pederson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML MIA +125 / TEX -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +82 Elo | TEX 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 47–287th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301473 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–69 | 79–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 35–44 |
| Underdog | 74–44 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 78–75 | 69–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–5 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.