Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Navarreto hit sacrifice fly to center, Pauley scored.4–2
- 6Freeman singled to left, Jung scored.3–2
- 6Langford homered to left center (412 feet).3–1
- 5Ramírez doubled to left, Marsee scored.3–0
- 4Hernández singled to left, Lopez scored.2–0
- 4Lopez doubled to left, Edwards scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML MIA +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +63 Elo | TEX 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 8th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 47–308th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Elo rating | 151710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–69 | 79–76 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 35–46 |
| Underdog | 76–44 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 79–76 | 70–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–5 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.