Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Otto KempBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Edwards hit sacrifice fly to right, Norby scored.6–5
- 10Castellanos singled to left, Stubbs scored, Bohm to third.5–5
- 10Bohm singled to center, Stott scored, Stubbs to second.5–4
- 10Marsee grounded into fielder's choice to third, Johnston scored, Hicks out at second.5–3
- 10Hicks singled to right, Conine scored, Johnston to third.4–3
- 9Hernández homered to left center (380 feet).3–3
- 8Hicks singled to center, Lopez scored on throwing error by center fielder Bader.2–3
- 8Conine homered to right (381 feet).1–3
- 2Kemp homered to right center (379 feet), Wilson scored.0–3
- 1Schwarber homered to right (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML MIA +170 / PHI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +92 Elo | PHI 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–38 | Road vs home | 51–241st of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–69 | 82–74 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 58–63 |
| Underdog | 77–44 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 79–77 | 74–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 16–22 PHI in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 38.