Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castellanos singled to center, Marsh scored, Bohm to second.8–2
- 9Bohm singled to center, Harper scored and Realmuto scored, Marsh to second.7–2
- 8Castellanos homered to left (370 feet), Bohm scored.5–2
- 6Wilson singled to left, Marsh scored.3–2
- 5Bader homered to left (386 feet).2–2
- 2Bohm doubled to center, Marsh scored.1–2
- 1Alexander grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll scored, Moreno out at second.0–2
- 1Marte homered to right (386 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML PHI +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 48.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +8 Elo | PHI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–38 | Road vs home | 40–3517th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–73 | 80–73 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–62 | 33–49 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 72–81 | 78–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–12 ARI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.